A looming winter has intensified concerns in European capitals as Russia’s stalled offensive in Ukraine raises fears of a new front—this time targeting the Baltic States. With Kyiv’s defenses in eastern Ukraine proving resilient, analysts warn that Moscow may shift focus to vulnerable NATO allies, exploiting weak points in the region’s security. Russian claims of progress in recent elections contrast sharply with the reality of battlefield setbacks, deepening speculation over Putin’s next moves. The specter of conflict spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders has sent a chill through European capitals, prompting urgent discussions on defense preparedness.


Winter is soon coming, and so too is a growing dread across Europe. It is dawning on European capitals that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s only conventional path to victory in Ukraine may lie through the Baltic States. Kyiv’s fortress Donbas in eastern Ukraine remains largely impenetrable. Despite Russian claims in advance of last week’s Duma elections that...