A sharp rise in global oil prices—potentially reaching $130 a barrel—could drive Australian petrol costs up by 30 cents per litre, according to IMF modeling, while also intensifying pressure on central banks to raise interest rates. The fund’s latest World Economic Outlook warns that prolonged Middle East instability, with spillover effects into next year, poses a significant threat to global economic stability, particularly through disruptions in commodity and bond markets. Economists highlight the scenario as a “clear and present danger” to an otherwise resilient world economy, with inflation and growth prospects at risk. The analysis underscores how geopolitical tensions could ripple across financial markets, forcing policymakers to respond.
IMF’s World Economic Outlook shows how a worsening Middle East crisis could affect global growth and inflationFollow our Australia politics live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastAn International Monetary Fund scenario where global oil prices jump to US$130 a barrel over coming months could push Australian petrol prices up by another 30 cents per litre and pile pressure on the Reserve Bank to hike interest rates, economists say.In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF modelled the impact on global growth and inflation from a worsening Middle East crisis that extended into next year, highlighting the “clear and present danger” to a resilient global economy from turmoil in commodity and bond markets. Continue reading...
