Could Vance’s soccer mom bonus nudge married women back to the GOP?

Recent polling data from The Associated Press’s VoteCast reveals a clear demographic profile of the Republican electorate: predominantly older, married, working-class white men. While individual Republicans may debate what defines their party’s core supporters, the numbers paint an unambiguous picture of who is most likely to back the GOP. The loss of VoteCast, a key polling tool, adds urgency to understanding these shifting voter trends. This analysis offers a data-driven look at the party’s base ahead of the 2024 elections.

Every Republican is liable to give you a different answer if you ask them what constitutes their party’s “base.” But from a purely demographic standpoint, it’s indisputable: older, married, working-class white men. The picture of the 2024 GOP electorate from The Associated Press’s now defunct VoteCast (a loss sure to be long lamented) is plain...