"Betting on Clinical Trials: A New Frontier for Predictive Markets Raises Red Flags. A growing trend of predicting clinical trial outcomes on betting platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has sparked concerns among researchers and regulators. By allowing users to wager on the success or failure of clinical trials, these platforms argue that they provide valuable insights for patients and investors. However, critics warn that this could create a culture of insider trading, where individuals with access to confidential trial data use it to inform their bets, potentially disrupting the integrity of the drug development process."
Researchers warn betting on clinical trials could incentivize insider trading and interfere with drug development. But Kalshi and Polymarket say they provide valuable information to patients.
