The long-awaited reckoning with the forecasts made before the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq is arriving in a new wave of retrospective analysis. Leading voices in the neoconservative and hawkish establishment had confidently predicted that both conflicts would be short, decisive campaigns that would reshape the Middle East and Central Asia in America's favor. Instead, the United States found itself mired in two of the longest and most costly wars in its history, with devastating consequences for civilians and lasting damage to its global standing. The piece examines how the gap between the confident rhetoric of the pre-war period and the grim reality on the ground has reshaped public trust in both military leadership and the media that amplified those predictions.
Hawkish pundits predicted both wars would be swift and successful. That's not how it turned out.
