As tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, a potentially more insidious threat is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil supply passes. The Strait, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman, has long been a source of concern due to its vulnerability to disruption. While the threat of a complete closure of the Strait has dominated headlines in recent months, a new development is casting a shadow over global energy markets: conditional access. This refers to the possibility of Iran or other regional actors imposing restrictions on shipping through the Strait, potentially limiting the ability of oil tankers to pass through. As the world's major oil producers and consumers navigate this complex and volatile situation, one question looms large: what impact will conditional access have on global energy prices and the global economy?
The next phase of the Strait of Hormuz crisis may be defined less by its closure than by conditional access.
